INTRO & ADVANTAGES of ANPOP 2&3. (File = ANPOP2and3 Intro and Advantages-5-17.TXT Last Rev = May 2017) The Contents of this Intro are the following. 1A) WHAT IS THE ANPOP SOFTWARE. 1B.) WHO CAN USE ANPOP AND HOW 1B.1) FOR FARM PLANNING. 1B.2) USING ANPOP FOR PET PROJECTS. 1B.3) LIVESTOCK INDUSTRIES AND SECTOR PLANNING. 1B.4) FOR POPULATION STUDIES OF OTHER ANIMALS. 2A) MAIN ADVANTAGES OF ANPOP over similar programs. 3A) ANPOP VERSIONS and REVISIONS. 3B) ENTRIES AND RESULTS OF ANPOP. 4A) HARDWARE REQUIRED AND OPERATING SYSTEM. ------------------------- 1A) WHAT IS THE ANPOP SOFTWARE. The ANPOP Software is an interactive computer program for simulating ANimal POPulation growth, especially livestock, starting with the number of animals in the original animal population. After simulating the Males and Females in the ANPOP each year, ANPOP can forecast the animals available for milking, culling and slaughtering if you that data for that population. ANPOP can also forecast the inputs and outputs, as well as the cost and revenues and profits for that project up to 10 years. ANPOP can be used for a wide variety of animal projects, such as livestock farming, extension and research, or pet projects, or zoos, or other animal population studies and research including wild-life. The ANPOP Program is available in 2 basic versions, namely; ANPOP2-SP1-v10yrs (that is ANPOP2 Single-Project version 10-years), and; ANPOP3-MP1-v10yrs (that is ANPOP3 Multiple-Projects version 10-years). The ANPOP Software is interactive and user-friendly. It is easy to use and most of the info you need to run the software is included at the place where it is needed for that prompt. THE MOST IMPORTANT REQUIREMENT TO USE THE ANPOP SOFTWARE IS YOUR KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE KIND OF ANIMAL YOU WANT TO FORECAST. For more info and graphics about the ANPOP Program, you can go to the website for ANPOP at www.AdacaPromo.Com. ================================= 1B.) WHO CAN USE ANPOP AND HOW The ANPOP Programs can be used for many kinds of animal projects, for example livestock farming, extension and research, or pet projects, zoos and aquariums. They can also be used for animal population studies and research such as wild-life. 1B.1) FOR FARM PLANNING. ANPOP can be used by farm managers, agricultural economists and livestock specialists, as well as consultants and students who want to know how a certain herd can develop over time. From the female stock and sufficient males to breed them (or by artificial insemination), ANPOP can simulate the herd-buildup given the average values of key variables like mortality rate expected in the plan period for the breed of livestock. You can use ANPOP to forecast the number of females and males of different ages each reproductive interval, also females and males each year. It will also forecast reproducing animals available for milking, animals for slaughtering (if required,) animals for culling or similar purposes, old animals for replacement at the end of their productive life-span. If you include the most important variable input coefficients you plan to use (e.g. area required per animal or feed per animal) and the prices of these inputs, ANPOP will compute the expected amounts and cost of each input, total cost and accumulated cost of the enterprise annually up to 10 years. Similarly, the software can be used with the output coefficients (e.g. weight per animal, milk per reproducing female,) and with output prices to calculate the amount and value of each product, and the total returns from the operation. You will be able to project several farm models accurately and quickly with this program. -------------------------- 1B.2) USING ANPOP FOR PET PROJECTS. The ANPOP Programs can be used to forecast any pet project. Like livestock farming, the user will enter the necessary variables for his or her project and ANPOP will give results for up to 10 years in the case of most pets. 1B.3) LIVESTOCK INDUSTRIES AND SECTOR PLANNING. The ANPOP PROGRAM can be used by agricultural planners to forecast the growth of each industry (or sub-sector) such as cattle, pigs or goats in a certain geographic area. The data from the areas such as districts, may be aggregated to estimate populations, outputs and inputs, costs and revenues for each industry in regions and finally for the country. The use of the software would be along similar lines to farm planning except that the values assigned to the key variables would have to be averages for the breeds in that district. You should also be aware that the larger the population, and the longer the forecasting period, the more memory is used to run the program. More on that later. 1B.4) FOR POPULATION STUDIES OF OTHER ANIMALS. ANPOP can be used by researchers and students in the life sciences to simulate population growth for animals other than livestock from birth to the end of their reproductive lives. This applies even if the animals are kept in the population till death from old age. 1B.5) ANPOP CAN BE USED BY PLANNERS AND MANAGERS OF ZOOS, & AQUARIUMS, & ANIMAL CONTROL PROGRAMS, etc. ------------------------ NOTE. For animals in the population beyond this period ('old animals'), the software gives their numbers each year. The programs can give the age distribution of the population in each model. Therefore the number of animals that reach the end of their productive lives each year can be recorded and carried forward. The total would then be the sum of 'productive' and `non-productive animals' for their average productive life-span. You can use steps similar to those outlined for farm planning, to predict the natural, social and, or economic effects according to the expected values of the key parameters like input and output coefficients, and prices during the period for which you are forecasting. ============================= 2A) MAIN ADVANTAGES OF ANPOP SOFTWARE over other ANIMAL FORECASTING PROGRAMS. We did searches with GOOGLE, BING etc, for similar software to ANPOP, and found no other program like it. (If there is a similar program to ANPOP, we didn’t find any.) We did not find a Company or University or Government Agency with similar software, except an International Organization that has a Livestock Spreadsheet. But theirs is a herd development table that does estimates using a big EXCEL spreadsheet with numerous complex equations. (We knew about that approach from working for various Ag.Planning Projects in the Caribbean many years ago.) Some Companies and Universities etc. have mostly farm accounting programs. A few have herd dev. tables that are specific to a certain animal, so you have to buy a different program for each kind of animal you want to forecast. Most were also much more expensive to purchase than ANPOP, or had to be used for a fee that cost more in a year than to buy ANPOP. The main advantages of ANPOP are the following. 1st) ANPOP Software uses Dynamic Simulation compared to a Static Herd Development Tables. ANPOP is a simulation program that starts with the Orig. Parent Pop (OPP) of different ages. Then after entering many key variables and applying each for varying time periods, the program simulates the birth of each offspring or groups of offsprings of different ages, also their deaths, or culling, or slaughtering etc, for up to 10 years for most farm animals and pets. Custom versions of ANPOP2 can be special ordered to simulate results for up to 20 years for other animals that have a longer productive life-span than most livestock, or live longer such as some wild-life. Forecasting by simulation is a dynamic process, so it can change each year, and use the results for the previous year to forecast for the next year. Therefore, simulating ANPOP is much more accurate than a herd development table that uses a static method by applying percent changes to a smaller number of variables for the entire forecasting period. Although the static method can give results year by year, it cannot use the results from the previous year as an entry for the next year, and so on, as done with the dynamic simulation method. Results from ANPOP can be used by itself for a Single Project, or for Multiple Projects of the same kind that are established on a phased basis over a period of up to 10 years. However, for Multiple Projects of different kinds, results from ANPOP3-MP1 can be put into a spread-sheet to get results for many different kinds of projects during that forecasting period. 2nd) ANPOP is much faster and more versatile than using a population development table. A herd development table can be done manually, but the simulation that the ANPOP Program does, can only be done by computer. A simple trial that ANPOP does in 10 minutes would take the typical livestock specialist 10 days working for 8 to 12 hours per day. We know this from experience when we were developing the 1st version of ANPOP years ago. In fact, we started working on the ANPOP Program because of the difficulty of preparing pop-dev. tables even with a spread-sheet. ANPOP will automatically save your entries for each forecast, and show you the entries for your previous fcast as you run it for the next forecast, and allow you to make the changes you want for the current forecast. 3rd) ANPOP Software is More Accurate than a Pop-Dev. Table. Also, the ANPOP Software can use more variables that affect the population growth, and is between 25% to 50% more accurate than the manual or computerized static herd-development tables. As mentioned before, simulating ANPOP gives much more accurate forecast (or projected estimates,) compared to real (empirical) data because it uses the results for the previous year to forecast for the next year. A pop-dev-table gives less accurate results mainly because of its static method of applying percent changes to fewer variables than ANPOP uses for the entire forecasting period. 4th) ANPOP2-SinglePROJect-v10yrs can forecast for a single project for up to 10 years. ANPOP3-Multi-PROJect-v10yrs is a bigger program that can give results for a single project, and for as much as 10 similar projects established in up to 10 different years. For Multiple Projects of different kinds, the results from ANPOP3-MP1 can be put into a spread-sheet to get results for many different kinds of projects during that forecasting period. We are confident that ANPOP2&3 are the best programs available at present, and most affordable to forecast animal population growth, as well as its inputs and outputs, also costs and revenues for a single project, or many projects established in different years. ================================== 3A) ANPOP VERSIONS and REVISIONS. There are 2 basic versions of the ANPOP Program, namely ANPOP2 Single-Project, and ANPOP3 Multiple-Projects v-10yrs. These 2 versions of ANPOP are revised from time to time, so that the full name of each program includes the date of revision, for example ANPOP2-SP1-v10yrs-rev-12-2-14. ANPOP2-SP1 is suitable for most users with a Single Animal Project, and ANPOP3-MP1 is OK for most users who have Multiple Projects or Production Units of basically the same kind. However, for Multiple Projects of different kinds, results from ANPOP3-MP1 can be put into a spread-sheet to get results for many different kinds of projects during that forecasting period. We will revise ANPOP when necessary from time to time to improve it, and in some cases (such as to fix a bug,) users will get a free copy of the the revised version. (Ref to License Agreement.) Updates of existing ANPOP versions and new versions will be also be made to improve the capabilities of the software. Your comments and suggestions will be welcomed to improve ANPOP. ================================ 3B) ENTRIES AND RESULTS OF ANPOP. ANPOP is an interactive software that will prompt you for entries while you use it, and will use your previous entries to set limits on your later entries to prevent unreal entries and many mistakes. Most of the first sets of entries (such as avg num. of offsprings & mortality rates,) are compulsory entries used to simulate the ANPOP per reproductive interval and per year. The compulsory key entries include; 1. the name & date of the ANPOP forecast, Kind & breed of animal; 2. the avg. num of offsprings per reproductive interval; 3. productive life-span 4. reproductive life-span 5. pregnancy period 6. different mortality rates for infants, youths, and adults 7. slaughtering age & rates (if animals will be sold for slaughtering,) 8. culling age & rates (if animals will be culled before being removed at the end of prod.life) 9. number and age distribution of the Original Female Pop. 10. number and age distribution of the Original Female Pop. Later entries (for exa Variable Inputs are Animal Products,) are optional entries that depend on what the user wants to forecast for that Original Female Population and Orig Male Pop. After you enter values for the key variables that will affect the population, ANPOP can tell you the following for each year up to 10 years. 1. Number of females you will have each year; 2. number of males; 3. total number of animals (the animal population); 4. number of females that can reproduce and give milk or other products; 5. total number of animals available for slaughtering and culling, (if that will be done,) and to produce another product, for exa. wool, or manure, or semen, etc ; 6. number of old animals past their productive life-span that can also be slaughtered, or sold for other purposes; 7. age distribution of males and females. If cash-flow analysis is to be done, you can enter up to 6 or 10 major input coefficients and input prices, and the output coefficients and prices expected during the forecasting period. ANPOP will automatically save your entries after you enter each set of entries. It will also show you the entries you made in the previous fcast, and allow you to change any entry you want to change for the current forecast. ANPOP will then give you results for each year up to 10 years; 8. amounts and costs of up to 6 or 10 variable inputs; 9. fixed cost; 10. total cost and accumulated cost; 11. number or total weight of animals available for culling, (not old animals), if that is to be done; 12. amount of meat from animals to be slaughtered, and, or milk or similar output that can be produced; 13. amount of another products such as wool, or manure, or semen, etc. 13. total and accumulated revenue; 14. total and accumulated gross margin and profit each year. Get a ANPOP Demo from the website = www.AdacaPromo.Com. ============================= 4A) HARDWARE REQUIRED AND OPERATING SYSTEM. The ANPOP program can be used on any PC using MS-Windows or compatible Operating System. ANPOP Program is COPY-PROTECTED Software.* The ANPOP Programs are copy-protected and so you cannot make copies of the program. But Demo Versions are available by request to try the software before you buy it. A setup file will be emailed to you when you request the demo, for exa ANPOP2-SP1-setup-4-6-14. You should request the demo and sample file for the version you are interested in, that is ANPOP2-SP1 for a Single-Project and ANPOP3-MP1 if you want to forecast for phasing of Multiple Projects of the same kind. THE DEMO VERSIONS ARE THE SAME AS THE REAL VERSIONS EXCEPT THERE IS A LIMIT ON THE NUMBER OF TIMES YOU CAN TRY IT BEFORE YOU HAVE TO BUY IT AND GET A REGISTRATION CODE FOR UNLIMITED USE. When you purchase any program, you will also get another copy and its registration info, so that you can keep as a backup copy if the original becomes defective, or to use the copy on another computer. Refer to the License Agreement for more details, and get a Demo at the ANPOP website = www.AdacaPromo.Com. -----------------------------